What do expected changes in U.S. job structure mean for states and workers in the Tenth District?

Public interest in the future structure of the U.S. labor market has been understandably high in recent years, for several reasons. Some types of manufacturing and service jobs are going offshore. The recovery in employment from the 2001 recession has been sluggish. And the quality of job creation has been called into question. Against this backdrop, policymakers, businesses, workers, and students in the Tenth Federal Reserve District are asking difficult questions about the future of jobs in their area. Will local industries increase or decrease employment in the years ahead? What types of workers will be in highest demand? Are future jobs in the area likely to be high paying? Wilkerson looks at the potential impact of expected changes in U.S. job structure on employment in the Tenth District. Specifically, he analyzes the latest national industrial and occupational employment projections made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and discusses what the projections mean for states and workers in the region—both in terms of quantity and quality of job growth through 2012. He draws two primary conclusions from the data. First, except in Colorado, the current industrial structures of Tenth District states are less favorable for future job growth than in the nation, although in some cases only slightly so. Second, the prospects for high-quality job growth in several district states may be somewhat lower than in the nation. While high paying jobs are projected to grow faster than low paying jobs across the district, the industrial structures of Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Wyoming are not quite as conducive to growth in high paying jobs as in the country as a whole.Employment ; Labor market ; Federal Reserve District, 10th ; Job analysis

Trends in rural manufacturing

Manufactures ; Rural areas ; Rural development

How high tech is the Tenth District?

Newspapers in the Tenth Federal Reserve District generally keep a close eye on where their cities rank in national studies of high-tech activity. Readers have good reason to be interested in how “high tech” their communities are, despite the recent downturn in the sector. High-tech workers are among the best paid of all workers and, if these recent studies are correct, an area’s failure to embrace the “New Economy” could result in a lower standard of living and fewer opportunities for residents down the road. But studies of high-tech cities, which are usually produced by think tanks, trade groups, or business magazines, have varying results and usually focus only on major metropolitan areas. As a result, it is often difficult for policymakers, businesses, and residents in the Tenth District to understand where they really stand in the “New Economy” and how they got there.> Wilkerson shows that much of the Tenth District is quite high tech, once the geographic distribution of the region’s population is taken into account. Across the country, the overarching determinant for the amount of local high-tech activity appears to be a metro’s size. Because the Tenth District has relatively few large cities, the level of high-tech activity in most district states falls short of the national average. But analysis of high-tech activity in metro areas shows that nearly all of the district’s larger metros exceed national averages for cities their size. In fact, several of the region’s larger cities rank among the most high-tech places in the nation.Technology ; Federal Reserve District, 10th

Recession and recovery across the nation: lessons from history

The U.S. economy officially fell into recession in December 2007, but the timing of the downturn varied widely across regions of the country. In some regions, employment began to erode much earlier in 2007, while in other regions economic activity stayed strong well into the second half of 2008. Do regions typically vary this much in the timing and circumstances of their recessions? If so, perhaps past experience can also shed light on whether some regions can be expected to rebound earlier or stronger than others from this recession. ; To explore these possibilities, Wilkerson looks at job growth trends across the 12 districts of the Federal Reserve System in recent business cycles. He finds that the timing and depth of regional recessions typically vary widely, with several districts regularly outperforming others. The same generally holds true for the timing and strength of economic recoveries and expansions across the country. Some of these differences can be explained by the unique industrial structures of the districts, but other factors also play a role.

What are the benefits of hosting a major league sports franchise?

Over the last few decades the number of U.S. metropolitan areas large enough to host a franchise from one of the four major professional sports leagues has soared. Even as major league baseball, football, basketball and hockey have expanded to include more franchises, demand by metro areas continues to exceed supply. Metro areas have thus been forced to compete with each other to retain and attract franchises. ; The resulting large public spending on new sports facilities has been quite controversial. Usually these costly projects are justified by claims that hosting a sports franchise spurs local economic development by creating numerous new jobs and boosting local tax revenue. Independent economic studies suggest, however, that such benefits are much smaller than the outlay of public funds. ; Does this mean that public funding of sports franchises is not justified? Perhaps not. Rappaport and Wilkerson review the current rush by metro areas to build sports facilities. They lay out the arguments both in favor of and against using public funds to do so. They show why the job creation and tax revenue benefits from hosting a major league franchise fall far short of typical public outlays on constructing a new sports facility. Finally, they argue that the large quality-of-life benefits associated with hosting a major league team may justify the public outlays.Professional sports

The District economic outlook : responding to labor shortages and overseas problems

The Tenth District economy slowed down in 1998, with employment growing marginally below the national average. Despite very tight labor markets, employment growth remained healthy in many sectors. Construction; trade; transportation, communications, and public utilities; and finance, insurance, and real estate---all posted healthy gains. The manufacturing and service sectors, however, turned in weak growth, a result of the Asian financial turmoil and a shortage of skilled workers throughout the district. District agriculture had a difficult year, as commodity prices plunged in the face of rising supplies and weakening demand. A large aid package from Congress late in the year prevented farm incomes from being considerably less than in 1997.> Gazel and Wilkerson discuss why the district economy is likely to slow further in 1999, growing only modestly compared with the recent past. The expected slowdown of the national economy, continued economic weakness in the rest of the world, and very tight labor markets throughout the district are all likely to play major roles in the district economic slowdown. Some sectors of the district economy, such as manufacturing and mining, are likely to be hurt more than others in the near future. The service sector is likely to repeat its weak 1998 performance, while a reduction in consumer spending will slow growth in retail and wholesale trade in 1999. Construction activity may weaken a bit in 1999, and the district farm economy is likely to face a difficult year unless the government acts to further boost subsidies.Federal Reserve District, 10th ; Economic conditions - United States ; Employment (Economic theory) ; Labor supply

What's hampering job growth in the District's services sector?

Employment growth in the Tenth District has fallen behind the national rate in 1999 for the first time in ten years. Although all economic sectors have been experiencing slower job growth, the services sector, due to its size, has played perhaps the most important role in the slowdown of overall employment growth in the district. While services employment elsewhere in the nation continues to grow rapidly, the district has witnessed very little job expansion in services so far in 1999 (Chart 1). In fact, the district services sector has added jobs during the first seven months of this year at less than a third of the rate enjoyed by the nation as a whole.Employment (Economic theory) ; Service industries ; Federal Reserve District, 10th

The Tenth District's defining industries: how are they changing?

The economy of the Tenth Federal Reserve District has become increasingly more services-based in recent years. While this transformation has lessened many of the historical differences with the rest of the nation, the regional economy still remains distinct, especially in some states. Wyoming, for instance, still has the most unique industrial structure in the country. And Nebraska, New Mexico, and Oklahoma still rank among the top third of states with economies that differ from the rest of the nation. ; What industries make the Tenth District so different, and what can they tell us about the future of the regional economy? ; Wilkerson and Williams examine the “defining” industries of the region. They find that the performance of a relatively small group of these industries track closely with overall job growth in each state. In other words, states whose defining industries have prospered in recent years have grown quickly overall, while states whose defining industries have struggled have grown sluggishly. Thus, identifying a state’s defining industries and understanding how they are changing can provide vital context for policymakers seeking to improve prospects for growth—as well as help identify the types of economic shocks that might threaten the region in the future.Federal Reserve District, 10th

The export potential of Tenth District states

After collapsing during the financial and economic crisis, exports have grown rapidly in the nation and across much of the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Despite some risks, most economic forecasts for national exports point to continued robust growth. An export boom, however, could have disparate effects across the country, given sizable differences in the volume, composition, and trends of state exports. ; Wilkerson and Williams assess the export potential of the Tenth District. They find that future export growth in the district is likely to be strong, although most states are likely to benefit less from the expected boom than the nation as a whole. Most states in the district have smaller export sectors than the nation and slightly less favorable export industry mixes. There are exceptions, though, and most district states have an adequate mix of trading partners. And, as in the past, other factors will play a role in the district’s export potential.